Monday, January 2, 2012

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Fantasy Football Week 17 Running Back Rankings

Don't expect C.J. Spiller to drop the ball for you in the last week of the season as he takes on the soft Patriots defense. He should get plenty of touches on the ground and through the air as a must-start RB this week.


It's the last week of the season and we're a little bit late due to some waiting for some of these situations to develop with which guys will get rest and which backups could prove to be valuable in Week 17. I'm doing all of the rankings this week and if you have any questions about why I have a guy a bit higher than you might expect, don't be bashful and put post a question in the comment section or you can send them to me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher.

I'd also encourage you to check out Kenny's Preview that covers every game. I covered several scenarios in Waiver Wire Scoops as well. Plus don't forget that I'll be posting the superfluously informative Active/Inactive Update early Sunday.

Links to the ranks: QB RB WR TE D/ST IDP

Running Back Rankings after the jump:

Star-divide

Thanks for reading!

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Source: http://www.faketeams.com/2011/12/30/2671534/fantasy-football-week-17-running-back-rankings

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No. 3 Kentucky, No. 4 Louisville renew rivalry (AP)

LEXINGTON, Ky. ? Kentucky coach John Calipari began a list when he was asked whether he and Louisville coach Rick Pitino are too much alike to get along.

"Similarities? We've both taken three teams to the Final Four, we both got fired in the NBA and we're Italians with big noses," Calipari said Friday. "I respect what he's done, respect the program, respect the city and the school."

No. 3 Kentucky (12-1) and No. 4 Louisville (12-1) renew their rivalry in the most anticipated yearly game in the Commonwealth on Saturday at Rupp Arena, where even the smallest details are scrutinized.

So when a video came out this month showing Calipari and Pitino chatting at a high school game in Mount Washington, Ky., there was an abundance of speculation about just what the two coaches discussed.

"We don't send Christmas cards, but we're cordial to each other," Calipari said. "I went up to him, talked to him, told him he's doing a fabulous job with his team, the way they're playing, blah, blah, blah. And he said, `Your team's really good and dah, dah, dah.' OK?

"He said `I hope we beat you' and I said `I hope we beat you' and I went and got a Diet Coke. That was about it. I don't know what to tell you."

The rivalry is as much about the two rabid fan bases as it is the players.

Between the two schools, 13 players have never participated in a Kentucky-Louisville game. This time, the schools have the highest combined ranking in series history. But Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis said he's recognized the passion simply by the amount of tweets he's received from fans about beating Louisville.

"We guess it's a big deal for them," Davis said.

Davis hears even more back and forth about what fans think of the respective leaders of the program.

"(They think) that they hate each other. One always goes out and parties when the other one loses," Davis said. "They look alike, but coach Pitino, I've never seen him coach so I can't say how they remind me of each other."

Only one side will have a reason to celebrate on Saturday night even though Calipari insisted he has no ill-feelings toward Pitino, saying any perceived friction comes from proximity.

"It's two different programs and two different leagues. We're not really recruiting against each other. It's just this one time and our fans are going to be happy or their fans are going to be happy, and that's it," Calipari said. "As far as our team, I'm telling you we respect them. Our players do not have animosity or hatred."

Louisville has been quiet since its 20-game home winning streak was snapped in a 71-68 loss to No. 12 Georgetown on Wednesday night. The Cardinals did not have any media availability ahead of this game and have lost the last two in the series.

"I think Kentucky is the better basketball team right now," Pitino said after the loss to the Hoyas. "Running up and down and trying to outscore Kentucky would be a futile attempt to try to get a `W'."

Kentucky is led by Doron Lamb, averaging 15.8 points, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who is chipping in 13.5 points. Davis is averaging a double-double with 11.6 points and 10.2 rebounds.

"We know they're just as athletic, we know they're a good team, too," Kentucky senior Darius Miller said. "We can't come in thinking that we're more athletic or we're the better team. We've got to come in and play."

Louisville guard Chris Smith measured it in NBA talent.

"Every guy on their team is, I guess, a pro," Smith said. "A win Saturday would come back and erase the sting, but at the same time we're 0-1 in the Big East. We just have to keep our composure and win the game on Saturday."

It certainly won't be easy. Kentucky has the nation's longest home winning streak at 43 games and hasn't lost since Calipari came to Lexington in 2009.

"It's a very hard place to play," said Louisville forward Kyle Kuric, who is averaging 13.5 points. "I'll just leave it at that."

But Miller, who grew up in Maysville, Ky., said he's expecting some wrinkles from the Cardinals, who'll need point guard Peyton Siva to get into the lane often to cause problems for the Wildcats.

"We know they are a very physical team," Miller said. "They play with a lot of intensity and we've got to match that. We've got to make them try to match our intensity and how tough we play."

Louisville freshman Chane Behanan said he's prepared for whatever happens in his first foray against the Wildcats.

"When I moved to Kentucky, I got the feel for it and understanding of it," Behanan said. "It's serious, real serious."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/sports/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111230/ap_on_sp_co_ne/bkc_t25_bluegrass_showdown

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Sunday, January 1, 2012

Chesapeake Energy: Managing Its Way Into Analysts' Good Graces

Chesapeake Energy?s (CHK) recent deal to sell its Appalachian Midstream Services, LLC, for $865 million to its spin off, Chesapeake Midstream Partners, LP (CHKM), may seem like hand waving to some. However, it is not.

Via this deal CHK has transferred debt obligations to an independent subsidiary, and it has gained a greater interest in the subsidiary. The publicly owned subsidiary has then taken on this debt load. This all means that CHK cannot be held liable for it. Plus the near monopoly pipeline business, CHKM, can borrow the money to finance this debt on good terms because it has a steady and defined income stream from its pipeline operations. Banks don?t like the big morass that is CHK any more than the analysts. It is too hard for them to determine what might fail and what effects any failure(s) might have on the overall company. With this action CHK has seemingly become more complex, but in actuality has become less complex to the bankers. This is a good thing. It should help CHK?s debt rating.

In another recent JV deal, CHK sold a 25% interest in 570,000 acres of CHK?s Utica Shale holdings to an undisclosed partner for $2.1B. $500M is scheduled to be paid by year-end 2011, and the remaining amount will be paid as development expenses in the Utica by 2014. This amounted to selling 142,500 net acres of its Utica lease holdings for a price near $15,000 per acre. This is nearly $12,500 per acre more than CHK paid for those acres ($2500/acre). This new money will allow CHK to fund some of its Utica development expenses. Plus it will pay off some of the debt incurred in buying the Utica lease holdings. It means CHK effectively bought roughly 700,000 of its Utica acres for free.

At the same time CHK formed a subsidiary for another part of its Utica Shale holdings. It sold $1.25B in perpetual preferred shares in this subsidiary, CHK Utica LLC, to EIG Global Energy Partners, GSO Capital Partners LP, and Magnetar Capital. This subsidiary owns approximately 700,000 net acres in the Utica. With this action CHK acquired $1.25B in immediate cash. Plus it sold no common shares in CHK Utica LLC, so it has retained complete control. In other words, CHK still owns those 700,00 acres. It has acquired the burden of the dividend payments for the preferred shares, but that is a lesser burden than its former debt. If CHK Utica LLC (CHKU) becomes cash strapped, it does not have to make dividend payments on time, although those payments will accumulate. The possibility of default is lessened considerably.

Effectively, CHK has moved development costs and debt burden into CHKU. This again decreases the liability of the parent company, but it does not really decrease its potential gains. Plus it again makes CHKU more understandable as a ?more simple entity? to banks. It makes CHKU more able to obtain favorable bank loans. Perpetual preferred shares have no maturity date, and they can be called at any time by the issuer (CHKU).

Analysts are going to soon realize that far from complicating the financial structure of CHK, this action (and others like it) simplify CHK?s financial structure to a banker. Plus they help to increase the book value of CHK?s assets, which again makes CHK a better overall credit risk. Since few now doubt the commercial viability of CHK?s Utica Shale holdings, this is even more true.

Some of the other ?monetization? actions CHK has taken just in the last year are:

  1. It closed a JV with CNOOC (CEO) in the DJ and Powder River Basins for approximately $1.3B of cash and drilling carries in February 2011.
  2. It closed the sale of Fayetteville Shale assets for net proceeds of approximately $4.65B in cash to a subsidiary of BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) in March 2011.
  3. It repurchased approximately $2B in senior notes and contingent convertible senior notes YTD.
  4. It closed VPP 9 proceeds of approximately $850M for approximately 180 bcfe of proved reserves for approximately $4.82/mcfe in May 2011.
  5. It helped develop a recapitalization plan for Frac Tech Services LLC. It received a cash distribution of approximately $200M, and it now owns 30% of Frac Tech?s common stock, which has a $100 cost basis.
  6. It is working on more monetizations.
  7. Its growth projections were so strong in the first six months of the ?25/25 Plan" it amended the plan to a ?30/25 Plan? (30% production growth per year and 25% reduction of long term debt per year).

Along with the $2.1B and $1.25B deals described in detail above, these actions amount to a total of more than $10B. This is more than half of CHK?s market cap of $14.54B. It is approximately one third of its $27.22B Enterprise Value. This is huge, and it shows CHK?s true value. CHK lost very little overall in these deals, but it gained huge amounts of cash. CHK still has 15.1 million net acres in excellent oil and gas fields. 6.1 million net acres of these are in prime oil shale fields.

Huge amounts of CHK?s assets are extremely undervalued, as the above deals show. The sale of the Utica assets (acquired for $2,500/acre) for approximately $15,000 per acre is an example of just how undervalued many of these assets are on the books. CHK has prepared a NAV table analysis (see below), which attempts to estimate the true value of CHK?s assets. However, even this table far undervalues the assets. It does not come close to putting a ?real? value on CHK?s oil shale assets, and it only touches on the possible natural gas assets' ?real? value.

More and more world long term energy forecasts are predicting huge increases in natural gas use. This means huge increases in natural gas prices. A lot are predicting these increases will begin in 2012 as the U.S. finally begins to recognize the potential price gains from exporting LNG. There is also the possibility of a U.S. energy policy change that will emphasize natural gas use for transportation.

Click to enlarge

CHK sells at a PE of 11.4 and an FPE of 9.49. It pays a non-negligible dividend of 1.50%. There is a lot to like in this stock. I will try to follow up with a second article about its production progress. However, any serious investor should be looking at this stock for a long-term investment. If it has another $5B-$10B debt monetization year in 2012, that may really put it on analysts' radar. You will want to be in this stock at that time.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in CHK over the next 72 hours.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/316710-chesapeake-energy-managing-its-way-into-analysts-good-graces?source=feed

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20 non-fiction books to watch for in 2012

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Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/zp9svS__qx4/20-non-fiction-books-to-watch-for-in-2012

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Great apes make sophisticated decisions

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Chimpanzees, orangutans, gorillas and bonobos make more sophisticated decisions than was previously thought. Great apes weigh their chances of success, based on what they know and the likelihood to succeed when guessing, according to a study of MPI researcher Daniel Haun, published on December 21 in the online journal PLoS ONE. The findings may provide insight into human decision-making as well.

The authors of the study, led by Daniel Haun of the Max Planck Institutes for Psycholinguistics (Nijmegen) and Evolutionary Anthropology (Leipzig), investigated the behaviour of all four non-human great ape species. The apes were presented with two banana pieces: a smaller one, which was always reliably in the same place, and a larger one, which was hidden under one of multiple cups, and therefore the riskier choice.

The researchers found that the apes' choices were regulated by their uncertainty and the probability of success for the risky choice, suggesting sophisticated decision-making. Apes chose the small piece more often when they where uncertain where the large piece was hidden. The lower their chances to guess correctly, the more often they chose the small piece.

Risky choices

The researchers also found that the apes went for the larger piece ? and risked getting nothing at all ? no less than 50% of the time. This risky decision-making increased to nearly 100% when the size difference between the two banana pieces was largest. While all four species demonstrated sophisticated decision making strategies, chimpanzees and orangutans were overall more likely to make risky choices relative to gorillas and bonobos. The precise reason for this discrepancy remains unknown.

Haun concludes: "Our study adds to the growing evidence that the mental life of the other great apes is much more sophisticated than is often assumed."

###

Max-Planck-Gesellschaft: http://www.mpg.de

Thanks to Max-Planck-Gesellschaft for this article.

This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.

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Source: http://www.labspaces.net/116343/Great_apes_make_sophisticated_decisions

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Italy seeks bigger euro fund after tough debt sale

MILAN/ROME | Fri Dec 30, 2011 12:03am GMT

MILAN/ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti sought reinforcement for the euro zone's bailout fund and pledged new efforts to boost the economy after a disappointing bond auction on Thursday underlined the threat to the country's shaky public finances.

Investors demanded a yield of nearly 7 percent on 10-year paper at the auction of medium- and long-term bonds, down from the record highs seen last month but still unsustainable given the 450 billion euros (377 billion pounds) that Italy needs to raise through debt issuance in 2012.

An unprecedented European Central Bank injection last week of nearly half a trillion euros of cheap funding for banks eased pressure at a short-term Italian debt auction on Wednesday, but longer-dated bonds still pose a challenge.

Monti put a brave face on the auction result, which analysts described as "slightly positive" or "average" at best.

"Auctions held yesterday and today went rather well, this is encouraging but the financial turbulence absolutely isn't over," Monti said during a traditional end-year press conference.

Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy, remains at the centre of the debt crisis that began in Greece two years ago and its borrowing needs could overwhelm the bloc's financial defences if it were forced to seek an international bailout.

"A lot of work remains to be done but from this point on, this work has to be done in Europe above all," Monti said.

He said the European Financial Stability Facility, the bailout fund set up by euro zone governments, needs "significantly greater" resources but refused to quantify how much more was required.

Monti promised to outline a first package of growth measures to European partners next month and said the emphasis would be on liberalising the economy, boosting competition and overhauling the jobs market, though he did not give details.

The measures will follow a 33 billion euro package of cuts and tax hikes aimed at balancing the budget by 2013 which was passed by parliament last week but which has been criticised for weighing too heavily on Italy's already sickly growth prospects.

Monti said he was aware that the austerity package had "many disadvantages" but said budget discipline was needed to restore confidence in Italy's public finances. However he added that European policy had to focus increasingly on growth.

"All mechanisms for making the application of this discipline more secure is welcome, provided it is integrated into a comprehensive European economic policy which has more resources to get the euro zone out of its current difficulties and above all promotes growth more," he said.

RECESSION

Italy's chronically weak economy over the past two decades has been one of the main factors in creating a debt burden that now amounts to around 120 percent of gross domestic product, second only to Greece in the euro zone.

Rigid labour rules - which give some workers iron-clad guarantees while forcing increasing numbers of young people to accept short term jobs with few prospects - an inefficient public sector, low productivity and choking red tape have long weighed on the economy.

Italy is widely considered to be heading for a severe recession next year and data on Thursday showed business confidence at its lowest for two years, with orders falling and the production outlook worsening.

Although he offered no firm timetable, Monti said the government would move quickly under pressure both from international partners and the bond markets.

"The timetable will be rapid. We aren't being permitted to work calmly," he said.

Underlining the pressure he faces, yields on 10-year bonds remained locked above 7 percent on the secondary market on Thursday, near the levels which forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek an international bailout.

Italy sold 7 billion euros ($9 billion) of bonds at auction in thin holiday markets, just above the mid-point of its target range, but the yield on benchmark 10 year BTPs was 6.98 percent, not far from a euro lifetime record of 7.56 percent a month ago.

"Buying 10-year Italian bonds is a leap of faith which investors are prepared to take only at very high interest rates," said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy. "There are simply too many risks and uncertainties surrounding Italy."

Its 3-year bonds sold more easily and their yield fell more than two percentage points at auction to 5.62 percent -- far below the euro era record of 7.89 percent that Italy paid to sell the same bond at the end of November. ($1 = 0.7724 euros)

(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones; writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Source: http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/UKTopNews/~3/1cTmbf4ODeg/uk-italy-bills-auction-idUKTRE7BR0CB20111230

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