linear technology: Last act of Thai flood drama not yet written

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Last act of Thai flood drama not yet written

Thailand's worst flooding in half a century has inundated a third of the country.? ??NBC's Ian Williams reports.

By Ian Williams, NBC News correspondent

Bangkok on Thursday?is rather like a slow motion disaster movie. But the bickering cast can't quite agree on how its going to end. They keep putting up the end titles, only to follow with another, grimmer, scene.

?There's no continuity. If I were in a cinema, I'd walk right out.

?In just a few days, the authorities have shifted from incredible complacency to near hysteria. A week ago, Bangkok was going to be spared. Crisis over. Now we are told that the flood waters are unstoppable, that a massive wall of water is bearing down on us, and all the city is facing inundation.

The message from the government Thursday was, in effect, brace yourself or get out of town. They've declared a five day holiday to help people cope.

?It hasn't helped that the city and national governments are from rival political camps, and at times have seemed more intent on tripping each other up than facing up to the floods.

?Many people who can have left town, but it has been surprisingly orderly given the latest warnings. There has been panic buying, clearing the shelves of basic items like bottled drinking water, but for the most part the people of Bangkok remain remarkably calm. Worried, yes, but there's certainly no panic.

Ian Williams

Evacuating from Sai Mai district, North Bangkok, on Thursday

Even evacuations, one of which we witnesses today in the northern suburb of Sai Mai, have been largely good humored.
One reason, perhaps, is that few Thais trust their politicians, and many simply are not yet convinced the flood will reach them. In Sai Mai today, many residents were resisting calls to evacuate. I spoke to one family of nine, still living in a house swamped by three feet of water.

?"We don't want to leave our possessions," one of the women told me. "It will have to get much worse before we leave."

?Those who leave are staying with friends or in a growing string of evacuation centers.

Ian Williams

Reinforcing the flood defenses while geese watch Thursday at Sai Mai.

As of Thursday, most of central Bangkok remains dry, though sandbags are everywhere. It's very quiet.

?This low-lying city is no stranger to flooding. My road is regularly swamped in the rainy season after a heavy downpour. Flash flooding is a fact of life, but Thailand has seen nothing like this for half a century.

?A Thai friend of mine this morning shrugged when I asked him about his preparations. He's regularly been flooded -- and in traditional Thai houses that's kind of what the ground floor is for. Nobody in their right mind would keep anything valuable down there.

Ian Williams

The bloated Chao Phraya river on Thursday.

What worried him most was how long the water stays. Flash flooding drains away quite quickly, but the government's warning that the water descending on Bangkok could stick around for weeks.

?Which brings me back to that disaster movie analogy. The floods started in July and have submerged a good chunk of central Thailand (a flood plain that's been heavily and mindlessly developed in recent years - but that's another story), and killed more than 370 people at the last count.

?The water seeps, it doesn't surge. It been moving slowly but relentlessly, and is now picking off Bangkok suburb by suburb.

?The alarm for the next three days has been triggered by a combination of massive run-off from the central plains and high tides in the Gulf of Thailand and the Chao Praya, the bloated river of kings that runs through this city. Today in Chinatown, a particularly vulnerable part of the city, close to the Royal Palace, water was lapping right at the top to the sand-bag barrier now holding it back. It has already been breached in some places.

Six in the evening local time Saturday will see a record tide, we are being warned? -- D-day for Bangkok. Or maybe not. Hold those end titles.